Stocks Keeping an Eye on “Quantitative Tightening”

U.S. equities pushed higher again on Thursday, continuing a recent string of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1%.


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Treasury bonds strengthened, the dollar declined, gold gained 0.6%, and oil gained 2.8%. Breadth was positive, with 2.7 advancers for every declining issue. Volume was heavy on end-of-month window dressing at 120% of the NYSE’s 30-day average.

Healthcare was the leader, up 1.7%, while telecom was the laggard down 0.5%. Financials limped along near the unchanged line. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) gained 2% after being upgraded by analysts at RBC Capital on improvements to the business and second half tailwinds. Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) gained 1.5% on a 7.3% rise in August comp-store sales versus the 6.1% expected.

On the downside, Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) fell 8.1% after missing quarterly earnings expectations on a 1% drop in organic sales. Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) fell 5.4% despite an earnings beat on weak guidance.

Turning to the economy, all eyes are on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Ahead of that, July personal income rose 0.4% from the previous month as core PCE price inflation remained tepid. The Chicago PMI manufacturing activity index was unchanged. And pending home sales fell 0.8%.

Conclusion


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Looking back at the month that was, stocks finished mixed: The Dow gained 0.3% while the Russell 2000 lost 1.4%. The “FANG” stocks ended unchanged. The dollar fell again, the sixth loss in a row. Bitcoin gained 65% to a new record high.

Precious metals were big winners, with gold up nearly 4%, lifting up and out of a year-to-date trading range as shown in the chart above with a move over the $1,300-an-ounce level.

Watch for a rise to 2016’s pre-election high near $1,375 as issues like the debt ceiling and tax reform beckons.

Heading into the jobs report tomorrow, analysts are looking for a payroll gain of 180,000 versus 209,000 prior with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. There has been some chatter about the negative seasonality in August — not adjusted for the government’s data — that has resulted in some big downside misses.

That could fuel excitement that the Federal Reserve won’t unleash “quantitative tightening” at its September policy meeting; something policymaker would then be forced to walk back.

Check out Serge Berger’s Trade of the Day for Sept. 1.

Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, .

For a list of this week’s economic reports due out, .

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Anthony Mirhaydari is the founder of the  (ETFs) and  (Options) investment advisory newsletters. Free two- and four-week trial offers have been extended to InvestorPlace readers.


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