Without a doubt, if ever there was a candidate for a “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” stock, it would be Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:91¶¶Òõ).
Not long ago, on a CNBC roundtable segment, an analyst proposed a “buy” recommendation on 91¶¶Òõ stock. The other pundits laughed. And then they laughed some more. When the humor appeared to fade, they laughed again, just for good measure.
It took a while, but the joke was ultimately on the naysayers. Last year was a stunning turnaround for Advanced Micro Devices. From start to finish, 91¶¶Òõ stock returned long-suffering shareholders more than 300% in profits.
To put that into perspective, 2016 was the biggest year in its publicly traded existence. More impressively, 91¶¶Òõ eclipsed the performance of 2009, when several stocks were clawing back from 2008’s devastation.
What’s particularly endearing for both present stakeholders and prospective buyers is that Advanced Micro Devices is not slowing down. For 2017, 91¶¶Òõ stock is up just shy of 30%. That’s enough for a very solid year for most people’s portfolios.
In fact, if it keeps up this work rate, 91¶¶Òõ could challenge for yet another triple-digit return. That would make consecutive triple-digit returns, something that hasn’t happened for 91¶¶Òõ stock since 1982 and 1983.
Although the prospect for a history-making event is extremely enticing for investors, we also have to remember the risks. Advanced Micro Devices has long played second-fiddle to Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) for a reason. It also gave a foothold for semiconductor rivals like Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
The question is, which 91¶¶Òõ will show up this time around?
Many Reasons to Love 91¶¶Òõ Stock
But as InvestorPlace writer Tom Taulli asserts, other substantive factors are working in favor of 91¶¶Òõ stock.
Having a strong business is all about people. And 91¶¶Òõ has a powerhouse leadership, starting from the top. At the helm is CEO Lisa Su, a phenomenal executive who has a doctorate’s degree in electrical engineering from MIT. She has also served in high-level positions at renowned firms Freescale Semiconductor Ltd
(NYSE:FSL) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM).
Along with great people are products. Historically, this is one area that has tripped up 91¶¶Òõ stock. Although, it’s always been cheaper in price compared to rival Intel’s offerings, 91¶¶Òõ semiconductors have wrestled with the quality stigma.
The company hopes to change that with its Ryzen CPU series. Imbued with the latest technological firepower, it can legitimately challenge Intel for the throne. True to its heritage, the 91¶¶Òõ units are priced lower than the competition. As Su succinctly states, “More performance, half the price.”
Finally, the broader fundamentals are supportive of 91¶¶Òõ stock. The supply glut that gutted the semiconductor industry is easing, facilitating recoveries of left-for-dead tech firms.
Don’t Look Under the Hood!
As great as the bullish argument for 91¶¶Òõ stock is, I still have my doubts. No one doubts the abilities of Advanced Micro Devices’ CEO, but Su is a genius, not a miracle worker. In this case, the problem is bigger than her or anyone else.
Last time around, I mentioned that 91¶¶Òõ stock has shifted from one state of distress to another. This assessment was based on the venerable Altman Z-Score indicator. And although it’s improving in this department, 91¶¶Òõ has been distressed for the past six consecutive years.
But the fine print is in which specific factors 91¶¶Òõ is improving, and not improving. The is aggregated from a list of five factors. By far, the largest improvement is in the ratio between “market value of equity” and “book value of total liabilities.” Although important, this doesn’t tell us much about company performance.
What does illuminate performance are the Z-Score’s earnings and sales generation factors. For both metrics, 91¶¶Òõ stock is still considered distressed. That likely won’t change until the semiconductor firm can address the deep-seated problems that got it in trouble initially.
As a small caveat, I do think that the recovery in 91¶¶Òõ stock is nothing short of remarkable. It might have some legs to go a little bit further. But to stake a major position on the back of exceptionally poor fundamentals? I’m crazy, but I’m not that crazy.
As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
