91抖阴

The stocks on this list have all done well lately … too well. They have run up too far, too fast, putting them at risk for a serious price correction with any hiccup in their business or a market downturn. And that could translate into big bucks if you are short the stocks.

We focused on well-known stocks with multi-billion-dollar market caps that have rallied considerably, are actively traded, and have active stock options. We even added short interest data for comparison. In some cases, the stock charts may conflict with our fundamental analysis, as stocks hitting new highs tend to keep hitting new highs. However, we chose these stocks because their growth rates and share performance have gotten way ahead of an implied fair value under the “new normal” we’re living in.

Keep reading for five overvalued stocks to short.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) is one of those stocks that is acting like it’s 1999 or 2000, with the difference being that the handle on the share price is $100 rather than $300. Now shares are above $145 as hype over deals drives this one higher and higher. However, it seems that every company under the sun is going after the same streaming movie dollar and the market is becoming very full of choices. Even with Blockbuster’s ongoing death spiral, Netflix’s growth of about 1 million users per quarter cannot last forever.

IBD keeps citing NFLX as the No. 1 chart each week, so don’t even bother trying to use a chart for anything other than determining an extreme overbought pattern. The most recent short interest data is almost a month old, but that was 10.4 million shares, the highest since mid-April. However, when shorting NFLX, be aware that the stock is very likely to announce a stock split soon, and that may be the final entry point for short sellers.

We made an exceptional gain on a SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: ) put options trade we entered before Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: ) and others started giving guidance warnings. The trend in consumer electronics still favors flash memory, which is good for SanDisk. However, the volatile nature of this company generally drives a series of exponential growth moves in the stock followed by an ugly period of contraction.

The exponential move was seen with an almost 1,000% gain from the trough in late 2008 to the peak in June 2010. If history repeats itself, SanDisk could drop from $38 to under $30, and if the slowdown in consumer electronics lasts much longer, it could even hit $25 based upon previous pullbacks. The most recent short interest from Aug. 13 shows over 10.6 million shares short, the highest since mid-March. In addition, the company’s founding CEO is retiring.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: ) is a true conundrum stock, and one hell of a value trap. BHP Billiton Limited (NYSE: ) wants it, but it wants it for $130. Shares are near $150 in anticipation that the agricultural giant could fetch between $160 and $170 before all is said and done. There are a few problems here. At $44.5 billion in market cap, there are not many players who can afford this company. And the Canadians seem reluctant to let this natural resource giant fall into foreign hands. Size does matter here, and even competing bids could come in below the $150 price today when you consider that there is a $20 arbitrage premium in the deal.

This is a great company with great assets, but a buyer here is paying nearly 20 times 2011 expected earnings, and that assumes that the demand in 2011 will allow POT’s earnings to grow by 33% and revenues by more than 17% next year. The most recent short interest data showed 6.22 million shares in the short interest, elevated but not off the charts.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: ) seems to have gotten ahead of itself. With more than 1,000 stores, the company is beating earnings and raising expectations, and there are still many cities it has not infiltrated. But from mid-July to early September, shares have rallied from under $130 to above $165. Chipotle now trades at over 32 times expected 2010 earnings and over 26 times expected 2011 earnings. Because it has done well, analysts continue to raise estimates.

This really is a great company, but the $165 price compares to a 52-week range of $79.02 to $167.04. With a $5 billion market cap, it has likely missed a buyout opportunity. In comparison, Burger King Holdings (NYSE: ) has nearly one-third higher sales, a cheaper valuation, and its market cap is only about 65% of Chipotle’s. A stock split is likely coming, but McMex has run too far, in my opinion. Keep in mind that it has an investor presentation scheduled for Sept. 14. The most recent short interest showed 3.19 million shares short, the highest since mid-April.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) sells everything under the sun, but the movie, book and music sales that are the company’s bread and butter are under attack from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: ), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) and others. The biggest issue seen in the last earnings report, which surprisingly did not hurt shares in the end, was a major compression in margins. As it keeps lowering Kindle prices and fixed shipping costs are unable to be trimmed much, Amazon may be stuck with its margins for some time.

If Amazon was at $110 or less, this would not be a short-sale candidate. But shares are back to $140, and the 52-week range is $80.50 to $151.09. The stock trades at 53 times 2010 expected earnings and 40 times 2011 expected earnings. Apple won’t kill Amazon, nor will any other single agent, but these shares have recovered too much, too fast after falling below $110 in late June. The most recent short interest showed 14.77 million shares, the highest since November 2009.

Next: A Bonus Stock to Short

Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: ) missed the cut for our top five stocks to short, but barely. William Shatner and friends have seen such a strong run that you wonder when it will end and how long people will play games to book unknown flights and hotel accommodations. At $325, shares are up more than 100% in the past year and up more than six-fold from the 2008 lows. The stock trades at nearly 27 times expected 2010 earnings and “only” 22 times expected 2011 earnings. Revenue growth of 28% is expected in 2010, and 20% in 2011.

The other issue is that this stock is nearly at the top of all price targets from analysts. Unfortunately, calling for a sale just based on performance is not a fair strategy. It seems that shorts have the same concern, because the 3.9 million shares short as of mid-August is not anything out of the ordinary. But keep PCLN on your watch list of stocks to short.