-
Bear markets may destroy market value and some weaker companies may fail, but for those that survive the carnage, the pot of gold waiting at the end of the rainbow can be quite substantial.
In fact, the collapse in price during a bear market allows astute investors to establish positions at deep discounts to long-term value. In a bear market, the intense focus on the short term often pushes prices beyond what is justified in that moment in time.
Remember, the value of a stock is a discounting of future cash flows. The mistake investors make during difficult times is to assume that those future cash flows will be at recessionary levels forever.
That is hardly the case. The business cycle is not dead. In fact, the opposite is true.
In contemplating the next economic expansionary period, investors would be wise to pay close attention to the technology sector. Technology is often at the pincer of any economic recovery, and stocks in the group tend to outperform the greater market as a new bull cycle takes hold.
Given that this recession has been and will be longer and deeper than what we have experienced recently, those technology companies that survive the bear will be in a prime position to generate big profits in the future.
Here are five technology leaders that have withstood the bear and are poised to thrive going forward…
-
Stock #1:
Let’s start with Big Blue. is no longer that large mainframe hardware manufacturer. In its place is a service behemoth that has long tentacles that extend into the entire global economy.
While weaker players fall by the wayside, IBM has solidified its business during this recession. The proof is in the pudding. Recently, the company announced that fourth-quarter profit came in at $4.4 billion or $3.28 per share. That bested analyst estimates of $3.03. More importantly, gross margin expanded to 47.9% meaning the company was able to increase profitability at a time of horrible economic conditions.
Going forward, the company raised guidance for 2009 predicting a profit of $9.20 per share compared with estimates of $8.75. The recovery has not even begun, and Big Blue is already expanding its business. Imagine how they will do when the recovery begins in earnest.
-
Stock #2: Cisco ()
Cisco Systems () is a giant networking and communications company. Its products are a vital part of global commerce and play a role in improving productivity across the globe. It’s that productivity that will propel us into the next business cycle, and with the recession CSCO is a leaner and meaner competitor. CSCO has survived while others like Nortel have floundered.
When good times return, I’m betting that CSCO will be a huge winner. During the bear, CSCO has remained profitable. That said, sellers in the market cut CSCO’s valuation nearly in half over the last year. And that’s an opportunity for investors. Shares trade for just 11 times trailing earnings and 10 times forward earnings. With the ability to deliver double-digit growth during normal economic times, I would say these prices are a bargain.
-
Stock #3: Intel ()
Intel () has not been immune to the carnage of the bear.
Revenues have been falling during the period, and the company has been forced to lay off employees and cut expenses to keep profit margins intact. Though painful, the damage has been nothing compared to chief rival Advanced Micro Devices (). The number-two chip maker had been making life difficult for Intel prior to the beginning of the recession. But now, as the recession deepens, 91抖阴’s very survival is in question as shares are currently valued at just over $2 per share. 91抖阴 is bleeding red ink, and with more than $5 billion in debt the future does not look good.
For INTC, profits are lower, but they are still making money and its debt is much more modest as compared to 91抖阴’s. In emerging from this bear market, INTC may find a friendlier competitive landscape. That alone is reason to own the company.
-
Stock #4: Google ()
Traditional media companies have been huge losers during this recession. That is not the case with respect to the Internet. If anything, the World Wide Web has proven its mettle during these tough times.
Leading the charge is search engine king, Google (). At a time when other search players, mainly Yahoo (), flounder, GOOG has reinforced its leadership in search. In addition, the company is planning aggressive moves against software giant Microsoft () as evidenced by its Chrome operating system.
The market, though, was not impressed having sliced 50% off GOOG’s market value over the last year. Shares now trade for just 14 times forward earnings. 20% future growth during stable economic conditions is not out of the question. GOOG is huge, and its markets are even bigger especially if able to make inroads in the software market. GOOG should not only survive the bear, they will thrive once the bear is slain.
-
Stock #5: Apple ()
During bear markets, some investors focus on the silliest things. In the case of Apple Inc. (), that focus has been on the health of fearless leader, Steve Jobs. Yes, Mr. Jobs is important to the success of the company, but to assume AAPL without Jobs will not be the same juggernaut is the ultimate in fearful thinking.
Even if AAPL hires a chimpanzee to run the company, its future for the next five to ten years is locked in given its current product lineup. There has been no recession when it comes to selling notebooks, iPods and now the iPhone. The markets for these products ensure growth for the foreseeable future with or without Jobs.
The bears have slashed more than $100 of market cap from this company despite its success. That is a mistake in my opinion. When the economy recovers, AAPL will be stronger, and the stock should be a core holding in any portfolio.
